主讲人Speaker: 苏良军    教授     清华大学

时间Date & Time: 2025年9月12日（周五），10:00--11:30

地点Venue:粤海校区汇星楼565会议室

内容简介/ Abstract:

This paper considers a linear panel model with latent regime-switching behavior and cross-sectional heterogeneity, where slope coefficients vary across individuals and unobserved economic states. A common latent regime indicator governs the switching dynamics, while allowing state transitions to depend on observed variables. The model incorporates a low-rank structure in the coefficient matrix, enabling efficient estimation through nuclear norm regularization and clustering techniques. We demonstrate consistent state identification and establish the asymptotic normality for both individual-specific and mean-group estimators. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate excellent finite sample performance for the proposed estimation algorithm across various specifications. An empirical application to the U.S. state-level Phillips-curve dynamics reveals two distinct regimes with opposing inflation-unemployment relationships, suggesting that the observed flattening of the Phillips curve reflects a shift in regime distributions rather than a uniform phenomenon.

主讲人介绍/Biography of the speaker：

Liangjun Su is C.V. Starr Chair Professor of Economics in the School of Economics and Management, Tsinghua University. Professor Su’s main research interests include econometric theory, nonparametric econometrics, panel data models, factor models, big data analysis, and machine learning. He has published more than 100 papers in top international economics, statistics and informatics journals such as Econometrica, Econometric Theory, IEEE Transactions on Information Theory, Journal of Applied Econometrics, Journal of Econometrics, Journal of Machine Learning Research, Journal of the American Statistical Association, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Quantitative Economics, and Review of Economics and Statistics. His works have been cited in various textbooks. Currently, Professor Su is a co-editor for Econometric Theory and an associate editor for Journal of Econometrics, Econometric Reviews, Journal of Systems Science and Complexity, Quantitative Economics, and Journal of Quantitative and Technical Economics (Chinese).