主　题：Belief Formation Under Signal Correlation

主讲人：Tanjim Hossain（何听泉） 多伦多大学Rotman School of Management副教授

时   间：2019年7月4日，上午9:00 – 11:00

地   点：深圳大学科技楼深圳南特商学院5楼会议室

主持人：李景景，深圳南特商学院副教授

交流语言：英文

 

内容简介：

Using a set of incentivized laboratory experiments, we characterize how people form beliefs about a random variable based on independent and correlated signals. First, we theoretically show that, while pure correlation neglect always leads to overvaluing of correlated signals, that may not happen if people also exhibit overprecision perceiving signals to be more precise than they actually are. Our experimental results reveal that, while subjects do overvalue moderately or strongly correlated signals, they undervalue weakly correlated signals, suggesting concurrent presence of correlation neglect and overprecision. Estimated parameters of our model suggest that subjects show a nearly complete level of correlation neglect and also suffer from a high level of overprecision. Additionally, we find that subjects do not fully benefit from wisdom of the crowd they undervalue aggregated information about others' actions in favor of their private information. This is consistent with models of overprecision where people do not properly incorporate the variance reducing power of averages.

 

主讲人介绍：

　　Tanjim Hossain（何听泉）是多伦多大学Rotman School of Management副教授。他的主要研究兴趣包括行为经济学和工业组织，特别是利用实地实验和实验室实验来检验理论在预测现实生活中行为的有效性。何教授是学术期刊Management Science的Associate Editor。他的研究成果发表在Quarterly Journal of Economics, Review of Economic Studies, American Economic Review, Management Science, and RAND Journal of Economics等国际一流期刊，并出现在“经济学人”、“今日美国”和其他新闻媒体中。

 

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