主　题： Learning in a Dynamic Context

主讲人：Tanjim Hossain（何听泉） 多伦多大学Rotman School of Management副教授

时   间：2019年7月4日，上午11:00 – 13:00

地   点：深圳大学科技楼深圳南特商学院5楼会议室

主持人：李景景，深圳南特商学院副教授

交流语言：英文

 

内容简介：

Traditionally, because of limited data, researchers assume people update their beliefs “as if” a Bayesian decision-maker or some other heuristics such as the average of observed signals. In this project, we design a laboratory experiment to elicit subjects’ posterior belief about the true underlying value of an unknown variable. We focus on dynamic of belief structures and sequentially elicit beliefs after providing subjects with any new information about the unknown value. In addition to eliciting posterior mean, unlike in the received literature, we elicit subjects’ perceived variance of the posterior distribution. By tracking the dynamic formation of subjects’ posterior distributions, we classicfy subjects into Bayesian and non-Bayesian. Moreover we characterize the “boundedly rational” behavior that explain a non-Bayesian subject’s belief updating pattern.

 

主讲人介绍：

　　Tanjim Hossain（何听泉）是多伦多大学Rotman School of Management副教授。他的主要研究兴趣包括行为经济学和工业组织，特别是利用实地实验和实验室实验来检验理论在预测现实生活中行为的有效性。何教授是学术期刊Management Science的Associate Editor。他的研究成果发表在Quarterly Journal of Economics, Review of Economic Studies, American Economic Review, Management Science, and RAND Journal of Economics等国际一流期刊，并出现在“经济学人”、“今日美国”和其他新闻媒体中。

 

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